Key Takeaways
- Revenue setup: Consensus $7.12B, whisper $7.30B; Q1 2025A was $5.47B. Bar feels reasonable but not low.
- AI bar: Investors looking for $1.5B+ Instinct revenue and reiteration/raise of $7B+ FY26 AI target.
- Server share: EPYC traction in cloud and enterprise — expect commentary on Turin Dense and Venice ramps.
- Client/PC: Strix Halo and Ryzen AI 300 traction, ASP mix from premium SKUs amid PC refresh cycle.
- Margin: Gross margin ~54.2% consensus; up ~190 bps YoY but flat sequentially as AI mix dilutes blended GM.
- Q2 guide: We model revenue ~$7.5B and GM ~54.5%; risk is conservative guide as China export controls bite.
- Implied move: Options imply ±8.5% one-day move vs. 8-quarter average of 7.4% — slightly elevated.
- Stock setup: AMD -5% YTD, lagging SOX (+4%); valuation at 27x 2026E P/E vs. NVDA at 38x — discount narrowing only on AI execution proof.
Snapshot
| Metric | Q1 2025A | Q4 2025A | Q1 2026 Consensus | Buy-side Whisper | YoY % (Cons.) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $5.47B | $7.66B | $7.12B | $7.30B | +30.2% |
| Data Center | $3.67B | $3.86B | $3.65B | $3.80B | -0.5% |
| Client | $1.45B | $2.31B | $2.18B | $2.25B | +50.3% |
| Gaming | $0.50B | $0.59B | $0.55B | $0.55B | +10.0% |
| Embedded | $0.85B | $0.92B | $0.87B | $0.90B | +2.4% |
| Non-GAAP GM % | 52.3% | 54.2% | 54.2% | 54.5% | +190 bps |
| Non-GAAP Op Inc. | $1.17B | $2.03B | $1.74B | $1.83B | +48.7% |
| Non-GAAP EPS | $0.62 | $1.09 | $0.94 | $0.98 | +51.6% |
| FCF (TTM) | $2.5B | $3.5B | $3.7B | $3.9B | — |
What’s in the full report
The PDF (~8-page report) includes the full narrative, charts, and detailed analysis across:
- Detailed quarterly results
- Segment performance
- Investment thesis
- Risks and catalysts
- Valuation and scenario analysis
The web page is a free preview. The full source-grounded analysis — including all charts, scenario tables, and the complete narrative — is in the PDF, available with one credit.