Key Takeaways
- Revenue setup: Consensus $1.50B, whisper $1.55B; Q1 2025A was $2.03B. Bar feels reasonable; the YoY optics will look bad regardless.
- Subscription & services: Guide $550-630M; consensus $590M. The midpoint is the floor for stock to hold.
- USDC float economics: Average USDC supply moderated ~6% sequentially; rate-cut speculation hangs over the line.
- Trading mix: Consumer transaction revenue likely down high-30s sequentially; institutional better.
- Coinbase One: ~1M paid subscribers exiting Q4’25 — incremental adds the cleanest engagement read.
- Adj EBITDA: We model $320M (margin 21%); printing $350M+ would be a meaningful upside surprise on opex discipline.
- Implied move: Options imply ±11.5% one-day move vs. 8-quarter average of 8.2% — markedly elevated.
- Stock setup: COIN -18% YTD, -32% trailing 1Y; underperforming BTC by ~24 pts over 12 months.
Snapshot
| Metric | Q1 2025A | Q4 2025A | Q1 2026 Consensus | Buy-side Whisper | YoY % (Cons.) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $2.03B | $1.78B | $1.50B | $1.55B | -26.1% |
| Consumer Trans Rev | $1.31B | $734M | $430M | $455M | -67.2% |
| Institutional Trans Rev | $141M | $185M | $200M | $210M | +41.8% |
| Subscription & Services | $698M | $727M | $590M | $615M | -15.5% |
| o/w USDC Interest | $298M | $364M | $320M | $330M | +7.4% |
| Adj EBITDA | $950M | $566M | $320M | $350M | -66.3% |
| Adj EBITDA Margin | 46.8% | 31.8% | 21.3% | 22.6% | -2,550 bps |
| Adjusted EPS | $1.94 | $0.93 | $0.36 | $0.42 | -81.4% |
| Coinbase One Subs (M) | 0.85 | 1.00 | 1.05 | 1.10 | +23.5% |
What’s in the full report
The PDF (~8-page report) includes the full narrative, charts, and detailed analysis across:
- Detailed quarterly results
- Segment performance
- Investment thesis
- Risks and catalysts
- Valuation and scenario analysis
The web page is a free preview. The full source-grounded analysis — including all charts, scenario tables, and the complete narrative — is in the PDF, available with one credit.