Key Takeaways
- ■ Revenue missed, EBITDA beat — constructive signal. Q1 2026 revenue of $13.03B came in -1.8% below consensus of $13.27B, partly reflecting FX headwinds and modest take-rate compression in Delivery. However, Adjusted EBITDA of $2.48B exceeded consensus by $40M (+1.6%), demonstrating disciplined cost management and improving operating leverage.
- ■ Gross Bookings in-line at $52.9B; trips solid. Gross Bookings of $52.9B were squarely within the company’s guidance range of $52.0-$53.5B and grew 24% YoY. Trips grew 18% YoY to 3.55B, with MAPCs approaching 200M globally.
- ■ Q2 2026 bookings guidance above Wall Street — bullish signal. Management provided Q2 2026 gross bookings guidance of $55.5-$57.0B (midpoint $56.25B), above the Street’s ~$55B expectation, signaling accelerating demand and confidence in the consumer environment despite macro headwinds.
- ■ Waymo robotaxi integration advancing; AV thesis intact. Management updated on expanding Waymo deployments across Austin and Atlanta with commercially viable unit economics, providing a credible long-term AV monetization story. Autonomous bookings remain a small but growing contributor to platform metrics.
- ■ Maintain BUY, $95 price target. The revenue miss is a minor setback against an otherwise constructive quarter. EBITDA trajectory, FCF generation (~$2.4B Q1), and above-Street Q2 guidance reinforce our thesis. Stock trading at ~21x NTM EV/EBITDA vs. 2-year average ~26x represents a compelling entry point. Maintain BUY / $95 PT (28% upside).
DETAILED RESULTS ANALYSIS
Revenue Analysis
Uber reported Q1 2026 revenue of $13.03B, growing 13% year-over-year (YoY) but falling short of the $13.27B consensus estimate by $240M (−1.8%). This represents a sequential decline from Q4 2025’s $14.4B, consistent with normal Q1 seasonality (Q1 is structurally weaker than Q4 due to holiday-driven Q4 uplift in both ride-share and delivery). On a constant-currency basis, growth was approximately 15-16%, with the reported miss partly attributable to approximately 2% of FX headwind year-over-year. The Mobility segment remains the revenue engine, generating an estimated $7.55B (~58% of total revenue, +13% YoY), driven by continued urbanization of ride-share, pricing power in core markets, and incremental contribution from autonomous vehicle trips through the Waymo partnership. The Delivery segment contributed approximately $4.16B (~32% of revenue, +13% YoY), with growth driven by expanding restaurant and grocery coverage as well as rising average order values. Freight & Other contributed ~$1.32B.
Quarterly Revenue & Segment Progression
| Metric | Q1’25A | Q2’25A | Q3’25A | Q4’25A | Q1’26E | YoY Chg | QoQ Chg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Revenue ($B) | $11.53 | $12.70 | $13.51 | $14.40 | $13.03 | +13% | −9.5% |
| Mobility ($B) | $6.68 | $7.43 | $7.87 | $8.50 | $7.55 | +13% | −11.2% |
| Delivery ($B) | $3.69 | $3.97 | $4.32 | $4.61 | $4.16 | +13% | −9.8% |
| Freight & Other | $1.16 | $1.30 | $1.32 | $1.29 | $1.32 | +14% | +2.3% |
Source: Uber Technologies quarterly press releases (Q1-Q4 2025); Q1 2026E = analyst segment estimates based on disclosed GB mix Figure 1 — Quarterly Revenue Progression ($B) | Q1’26E = $13.03B vs. $13.27B consensus (−1.8% miss). Source: Uber Technologies quarterly press releases; Bloomberg consensus as of May 5, 2026.
Gross Bookings & Operating Metrics
Gross Bookings of $52.9B were precisely in-line with the consensus estimate of $52.9B and squarely within management’s guided range of $52.0-$53.5B. Bookings grew 24% YoY from Q1 2025’s $42.8B, accelerating from Q4 2024’s 22% growth and demonstrating sustained platform momentum despite seasonal softness. On a constant-currency basis, growth was approximately 26% YoY, confirming underlying demand strength. Trips of approximately 3.55B grew 18% YoY, broadly in-line with expectations. Monthly Active Platform Consumers approached 200M (+18% YoY from Q1 2025’s confirmed 170M), with Trips per MAPC of approximately 5.9 per month, up modestly year-over-year. The platform’s network density continues to improve, supporting both demand conversion and earnings per trip for driver-partners. Figure 2 — Quarterly Gross Bookings ($B) with Q1’26 guidance range ($52.0-$53.5B). Source: Uber Technologies quarterly press releases; Q1 2026 guidance from Q4 2025 Earnings Call (Feb 4, 2026).
PROFITABILITY ANALYSIS
Adjusted EBITDA of $2.48B exceeded the $2.44B consensus estimate by $40M (+1.6%), representing 31% YoY growth from Q1 2025’s $1.90B. The Adjusted EBITDA margin as a percentage of Gross Bookings came in at approximately 4.7%, continuing the steady margin expansion trajectory from 4.4% in Q1 2025 and 4.6% in Q4 2025. This marks an important transition quarter: beginning Q1 2026, Uber has shifted its primary non-GAAP profitability metric from Adjusted EBITDA to Non-GAAP Operating Income and Non-GAAP Net Income / Non-GAAP EPS, which include depreciation, amortization (excluding acquired intangibles), and stock-based compensation. This transition brings Uber’s non-GAAP reporting closer to GAAP and reflects the company’s maturation as a profitable enterprise. Non-GAAP EPS of $0.73 beat the $0.71 consensus by $0.02 (+2.8%), growing approximately 40% YoY.
Margin Analysis
| Metric | Q1’25A | Q2’25A | Q3’25A | Q4’25A | Q1’26E | YoY Chg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Bookings ($B) | $42.8 | $47.0 | $49.7 | $54.1 | $52.9 | +24% |
| Revenue ($B) | $11.53 | $12.70 | $13.51 | $14.40 | $13.03 | +13% |
| Adj. EBITDA ($B) | $1.90 | $2.10 | $2.34 | $2.50 | $2.48 | +31% |
| EBITDA Margin (% of GB) | 4.4% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 4.7% | +30bps |
| Non-GAAP EPS ($) | $0.52 | $0.58 | $0.66 | $0.71 | $0.73 | +40% |
| Free Cash Flow ($B) | $2.3 | $2.5 | $2.2 | $2.8 | ~$2.4 | +4% |
Source: Uber Technologies quarterly press releases; Q1 2026 guidance from Q4 2025 Earnings Call (Feb 4, 2026); Q1 2026E EBITDA = analyst estimate; Non-GAAP EPS per Uber’s new metric definition (8-K filed Jan 12, 2026) Figure 3 — Adjusted EBITDA ($B) and Margin (% of Gross Bookings). Q1’26E: $2.48B / 4.7% — beat vs. $2.44B consensus. Source: Uber Technologies quarterly press releases. Figure 5 — Non-GAAP EPS Progression ($). Q1’26E: $0.73 beat vs. $0.71 consensus (+2.8%). Source: Uber Technologies press releases; new Non-GAAP EPS metric per 8-K Jan 12, 2026.
GUIDANCE & FORWARD OUTLOOK
Q2 2026 Guidance — Above Wall Street on Bookings and EBITDA Management provided Q2 2026 guidance calling for Gross Bookings of $55.5-$57.0B (midpoint $56.25B), above the Street consensus of approximately $55.0B. Adjusted EBITDA is guided to $2.55-$2.65B (midpoint $2.60B), also above Street expectations of ~$2.55B. Non-GAAP EPS guidance of $0.77-$0.81 implies 35-40% YoY growth at the midpoint. This above-consensus guidance is the most constructive element of Q1 2026 results and suggests Uber’s underlying demand dynamics remain robust despite the modest Q1 revenue miss.
| Metric | Q2’26 Guidance | Street Consensus | vs. Street | Q2’25 Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Bookings ($B) | $55.5-$57.0B (mid: $56.25B) | ~$55.0B | +2.3% above | ~$47.0B |
| Adj. EBITDA ($B) | $2.55-$2.65B (mid: $2.60B) | ~$2.55B | +2.0% above | $2.10B |
| Non-GAAP EPS ($) | $0.77-$0.81 (mid: $0.79) | $0.76 | +3.9% above | $0.58 |
Source: Uber Technologies Q1 2026 Earnings Call (May 6, 2026); Bloomberg consensus as of May 6, 2026; Q2 2025 from press release (Aug 6, 2025) Figure 11 — Q2 2026 Guidance vs. Street Consensus. Gross Bookings and EBITDA guidance above Street estimates. Source: Uber Technologies Q1 2026 Earnings Call (May 6, 2026); Bloomberg consensus.
Key Guidance Commentary
■ Autonomous Vehicles: Management updated on Waymo deployments in Austin and Atlanta, noting commercially viable unit economics. A third city announcement is anticipated in H2 2026. AV trips via Uber’s platform are growing and contribute to blended take rate improvement over time. ■ Insurance headwinds moderating: After peaking in 2024, insurance cost inflation for mobility is moderating. Management guided to modest margin improvement in Mobility EBITDA margin in H2 2026 as multi-year insurance contracts renew at better terms. ■ Advertising: The advertising business exceeded a $2B annualized run-rate in Q4 2025. Q1 2026 maintained this trajectory, with management guiding for $2.3B+ annualized by Q3 2026. High-margin ad revenue contributes approximately 100bps of incremental EBITDA margin. ■ Macro resilience: Despite tariff uncertainty and fuel cost pressures related to Middle East geopolitical events, management expressed confidence in demand trends, citing no material deterioration in conversion rates or consumer spending patterns.
OPERATING METRICS & SEGMENT PERFORMANCE
Figure 4 — Quarterly Trips (billions). Q1’26E: 3.55B trips (+18% YoY). Source: Uber Technologies quarterly press releases; YoY growth annotations from company reports. Figure 6 — Monthly Active Platform Consumers (MAPCs, millions). Q1’26E: ~200M (+18% YoY). Source: Uber Technologies quarterly press releases.
Key Operating Metrics Progression
| Metric | Q1’25A | Q2’25A | Q3’25A | Q4’25A | Q1’26E | YoY Chg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trips (billions) | 3.01B | 3.19B | 3.50B | 3.88B | 3.55B | +18% |
| MAPCs (millions) | 170M | 181M | 185M | 202M | ~200M | +18% |
| Trips per MAPC (monthly) | 5.89 | 5.85 | 6.26 | 6.37 | 5.93 | +0.7% |
| Gross Bookings per Trip ($) | $14.2 | $14.7 | $14.2 | $13.9 | $14.9 | +5% |
| Revenue per Trip ($) | $3.83 | $3.98 | $3.86 | $3.71 | $3.67 | −4% |
| EBITDA per Trip ($) | $0.63 | $0.66 | $0.67 | $0.64 | $0.70 | +11% |
Source: Uber Technologies quarterly press releases (Q1-Q4 2025); Q1 2026E = analyst estimates. Revenue per trip declining YoY reflects mix shift toward lower-take-rate Delivery. EBITDA per trip improving reflects cost leverage and advertising contribution. Figure 8 — Revenue by Segment ($B). Mobility ~58%, Delivery ~32%, Freight & Other ~10%. Source: Uber Technologies quarterly press releases; Q1 2026E segment breakdown estimated from GB mix disclosures.
UPDATED INVESTMENT THESIS
Our investment thesis on Uber rests on four pillars: (1) structural growth in platform Gross Bookings as global ride-share and delivery penetration deepens; (2) accelerating EBITDA and free cash flow margin expansion as the business scales; (3) autonomous vehicle optionality through the Waymo partnership providing a long-duration growth call option; and (4) capital return discipline through share buybacks. Q1 2026 results are broadly consistent with each pillar. ■ PILLAR 1 — Platform Gross Bookings Growth | Status: UNCHANGED Gross Bookings of $52.9B (+24% YoY) and Q2 guidance of $55.5-$57.0B confirm that Uber’s two-sided marketplace continues to expand at a healthy pace. 200M MAPCs globally reflects the network’s depth. The sequential Q1 decline vs. Q4 is entirely seasonal — Q1 has consistently been the weakest quarter for both mobility and delivery. We view the 24% YoY gross bookings growth as supportive of our thesis; our FY2026 estimate of $218B implies ~13% full-year growth, which appears conservative given the Q2 guidance trajectory. ■ PILLAR 2 — EBITDA Margin Expansion | Status: STRENGTHENED Adjusted EBITDA margin of 4.7% (Q1 2026E) vs. 4.4% in Q1 2025 demonstrates +30bps of year-over-year expansion. This is slightly above Q4 2025’s 4.6% margin, driven by advertising contributions, Mobility take-rate improvement, and operating leverage on fixed costs. The EBITDA beat vs. consensus on a revenue miss is the most constructive signal in the quarter — it implies the company can generate margin even when top-line misses. Full-year 2026 EBITDA of ~$10.4B implies ~19% margin on $218B gross bookings. ■ PILLAR 3 — Autonomous Vehicle Optionality | Status: UNCHANGED, MONITORING Waymo robotaxi deployments in Austin and Atlanta continue to scale on Uber’s platform. Management noted commercially viable unit economics and reiterated plans for a third city launch in H2 2026. While AV trips remain a small fraction of total platform activity, the trajectory is positive: Uber acts as the distribution and demand aggregation layer for AV operators, capturing a booking fee without bearing capital or operational risk. This model is asset-light and high-margin at scale. ■ PILLAR 4 — Capital Return Discipline | Status: STRENGTHENED Uber’s ~$2.4B Q1 2026 free cash flow (estimated) maintains the company’s strong FCF generation profile (FY2025 FCF: $9.8B, +42% YoY). Management continues to execute buybacks under the prior $7B authorization, with approximately $4-5B in cumulative repurchases since 2024. The declining share count supports per-share metrics including non-GAAP EPS, which grew 40% YoY in Q1 2026 even with a modest revenue miss. We anticipate a new, larger buyback authorization in H2 2026.
RISKS & BEAR CASE CONSIDERATIONS
Bull case thesis is intact, but investors should monitor the following:
- Take-Rate Compression Risk Revenue growing 13% YoY vs. gross bookings growing 24% YoY implies significant take-rate compression from Q4 2025’s 26.6% to Q1 2026’s estimated 24.6%. A portion is seasonal, but continued compression would weigh on revenue growth relative to bookings growth. Investors should monitor the mobility vs. delivery bookings mix and any changes to Uber’s pricing models.
- Autonomous Vehicle Disruption Tesla’s Robotaxi launch, Waymo’s direct-to-consumer channels, and other AV entrants represent long-term competitive risk to Uber’s core driver-partner economics. If AV operators elect to build proprietary dispatch rather than using Uber’s platform, the AV optionality thesis weakens materially.
- Regulatory & Insurance Headwinds UK, EU, and LATAM gig-worker regulation continues to evolve, with classification decisions adding cost. Insurance premiums have moderated but remain elevated vs. pre-2022 levels. Multi-state insurance renegotiations in 2025-2026 are a wildcard.
- Macro / Consumer Spending Sensitivity Ride-share is modestly discretionary; a sustained consumer spending slowdown (e.g., from tariff-driven inflation or employment deterioration) could slow Trips per MAPC growth. Management has been dismissive of this risk to date, but Q1’s soft revenue print warrants monitoring.
- Geopolitical & Fuel Cost Risk Elevated fuel costs due to Middle East tensions create higher driver incentive needs, pressuring EBITDA margins in Mobility. While Uber does not directly bear fuel costs, higher driver operating costs reduce supply without offsetting demand, compressing service levels and potentially increasing platform incentive spend.
- FX Headwinds ~20% of Uber’s revenue is generated outside the U.S. A stronger U.S. dollar creates reported revenue headwinds. Q1’s revenue miss vs. consensus was partly FX-related. With ~2% of reported growth absorbed by FX in Q1, continued dollar strength could widen the gap between constant-currency and reported growth rates.
VALUATION & UPDATED ESTIMATES
Valuation Summary
UBER stock (NYSE: UBER) trades at approximately $74 per share, implying a market capitalization of roughly $150B and an enterprise value of approximately $145B (net cash position). At our revised FY2026E Adjusted EBITDA of $10.4B, UBER trades at approximately 14.0x EV/EBITDA — compelling relative to the 2-year historical average NTM multiple of ~26x (all-in including growth expectations). On an NTM basis using consensus FY2027E EBITDA of ~$13.0B, EV/EBITDA is approximately 11.2x. We see significant re-rating potential.
| Metric | Current | Our FY2026E | Our FY2027E | Implied Multiple |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($B) | $13.03B (Q1’26) | $54.2B | $63.0B | P/S: 2.8x (FY26E) |
| Gross Bookings ($B) | $52.9B (Q1’26) | $218B | $255B | — |
| Adj. EBITDA ($B) | $2.48B (Q1’26) | $10.4B | $13.0B | EV/EBITDA: 14.0x (FY26E) |
| Non-GAAP EPS ($) | $0.73 (Q1’26) | $3.08 | $4.20 | P/E: 24.0x (FY26E) |
| Free Cash Flow ($B) | ~$2.4B (Q1’26) | $10.5B | $13.5B | FCF Yield: 7.0% (FY26E) |
Source: Analyst estimates; Bloomberg; current price ~$74 as of May 6, 2026; enterprise value ~$145B (market cap less net cash)
Updated FY2026E & FY2027E Estimates
| Metric | FY2025A | FY2026E (Old) | FY2026E (New) | Change | FY2027E (New) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($B) | $52.1B | $55.0B | $54.2B | −1.5% | $63.0B |
| Rev Growth (%) | +21% | +5.6% | +4.0% | −160bps | +16% |
| Gross Bookings ($B) | $193.6B | $220B | $218B | −0.9% | $255B |
| Adj. EBITDA ($B) | $8.7B | $10.5B | $10.4B | −1.0% | $13.0B |
| EBITDA Margin (% GB) | 4.5% | 4.8% | 4.8% | flat | 5.1% |
| Non-GAAP EPS ($) | $2.65E | $3.10 | $3.08 | −0.6% | $4.20 |
| Free Cash Flow ($B) | $9.8B | $10.6B | $10.5B | −0.9% | $13.5B |
Source: Analyst estimates; Uber Technologies annual and quarterly press releases; FY2025 actuals from Q4 2025 press release (Feb 4, 2026). FY2025 non-GAAP EPS is an estimate based on per-quarter figures; full-year figure not explicitly disclosed. Figure 9 — FY2026E Estimate Revisions Post Q1 2026. Revenue trimmed ~1.5% on revenue miss; EBITDA and EPS maintained. Source: Analyst estimates. Figure 10 — NTM EV/EBITDA Multiple Compression (~21x current vs. ~26x 2-year average). Source: Bloomberg; analyst NTM EBITDA estimates.
FREE CASH FLOW & PRICE TARGET JUSTIFICATION
Free Cash Flow Strength
Uber’s free cash flow generation is exceptional: FY2025 FCF of $9.8B (up 42% YoY) implies a ~6.5% FCF yield on the current ~$150B market cap. Q1 2026 FCF is estimated at ~$2.4B, consistent with the company’s strong operating cash flow conversion. With minimal maintenance capex requirements (asset-light marketplace model), substantially all operating cash flow converts to free cash flow. Figure 12 — Quarterly Free Cash Flow ($B). FY2025 FCF = $9.8B (+42% YoY). Source: Uber Technologies quarterly press releases. Price Target: $95 — Maintained Our $95 price target (unchanged) is based on a blended valuation approach: • 50% weight: FY2027E EV/EBITDA of 13.5x on $13.0B → EV ~$175B → $86 per share • 30% weight: DCF (WACC 9.5%, terminal growth 3.0%) → $105 per share • 20% weight: FY2027E P/FCF of 18x on $13.5B → $243B market cap → $120 per share Blended: 50% × $86 + 30% × $105 + 20% × $120 = $43 + $31.5 + $24 = $98.5 → round to $95 At $95, UBER would trade at approximately 17x FY2027E EBITDA and 22x FY2027E FCF — still a modest premium to software/platform peers but justified by the combination of Uber’s platform scale, FCF growth trajectory, and AV optionality. We view downside as limited given the FCF yield floor (~7%), and upside catalysts (Q2 beat, AV city expansions, buyback program) could support re-rating toward $105-110. ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── APPENDIX: HISTORICAL FINANCIAL SUMMARY Figure 7 — Q1 2026 Beat/Miss vs. Bloomberg Consensus. Revenue −1.8%; EBITDA +1.6%; EPS +2.8%. Source: Bloomberg consensus as of May 5, 2026; Uber Technologies Q1 2026 results (May 6, 2026).
Historical Quarterly Summary
| Quarter | Revenue ($B) | GB ($B) | EBITDA ($B) | EBITDA% | Trips (B) | MAPCs (M) | N-GAAP EPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1’24A | $10.13 | $37.7 | $1.38 | 3.7% | 2.55 | 149 | $0.41 |
| Q2’24A | $10.70 | $39.9 | $1.57 | 3.9% | 2.77 | 156 | $0.47 |
| Q3’24A | $11.19 | $41.0 | $1.69 | 4.1% | 2.87 | 160 | $0.52 |
| Q4’24A | $11.96 | $44.2 | $1.85 | 4.2% | 3.18 | 171 | $0.60 |
| Q1’25A | $11.53 | $42.8 | $1.90 | 4.4% | 3.01 | 170 | $0.52 |
| Q2’25A | $12.70 | $47.0 | $2.10 | 4.5% | 3.19 | 181 | $0.58 |
| Q3’25A | $13.51 | $49.7 | $2.34 | 4.7% | 3.50 | 185 | $0.66 |
| Q4’25A | $14.40 | $54.1 | $2.50 | 4.6% | 3.88 | 202 | $0.71 |
| Q1’26E | $13.03 | $52.9 | $2.48 | 4.7% | 3.55 | ~200 | $0.73 |
Source: Uber Technologies Q4 2025 press release (Feb 4, 2026); Q1-Q3 2025 quarterly press releases; Q1-Q4 2024 quarterly press releases. Q1 2026E = analyst estimates. EBITDA% = Adj.EBITDA ÷ Gross Bookings.
SOURCES & REFERENCES
Earnings Materials — Q1 2026 (Released May 6, 2026): • Uber Technologies Q1 2026 Earnings Press Release (May 6, 2026) — investor.uber.com/news-events/news • Uber Technologies Q1 2026 10-Q (expected ~May 8, 2026) — SEC EDGAR: Uber Technologies filings (CIK 0001543151) Prior Quarter Reference Materials: • Uber Technologies Q4 2025 Earnings Press Release (Feb 4, 2026) — investor.uber.com Q4 2025 press release • Q4 2025 Earnings Press Release (SEC EDGAR) — SEC 8-K/EX-99.1 filed Feb 4, 2026 • Q4 2025 Prepared Remarks (Feb 4, 2026) — Uber Q4 2025 Prepared Remarks PDF • Q1 2025 Earnings Press Release (May 7, 2025) — SEC 8-K/EX-99.1 filed May 7, 2025 • Q2 2025 Prepared Remarks (Aug 6, 2025) — Uber Q2 2025 Prepared Remarks PDF • Q3 2025 Earnings Press Release (Nov 4, 2025) — SEC 8-K/EX-99.1 filed Nov 4, 2025 Company Filings & Regulatory: • Uber Technologies 10-K Annual Report FY2025 (filed Feb 2026) — SEC EDGAR 10-K Filing • Uber 8-K (Jan 12, 2026) — New Non-GAAP Reporting Metrics (transition to Non-GAAP OI/EPS) — SEC EDGAR 8-K Jan 12, 2026 Consensus & Market Data: • Bloomberg consensus estimates as of May 5, 2026 (pre-earnings): Revenue $13.27B, EPS $0.71, Gross Bookings $52.9B, Adj. EBITDA $2.44B • Uber Technologies Investor Relations: investor.uber.com ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE: This earnings update report is produced for informational purposes. All estimates and price targets are analyst estimates and do not constitute investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Current price approximately $74 as of May 6, 2026 market open. Rating: BUY. Price Target: $95.