Key Takeaways
- Top-line beat: Revenue beat $0.28B (+1.9%) on Skyrizi/Rinvoq immunology dominance and a 26.0% reported (24.3% operational) surge in neuroscience.
- Bottom-line beat: Adj. EPS of $2.65 vs $2.62 consensus (+1.1%); beat would have been wider ex-$0.41 IPR&D charge on early-stage BD activity.
- Guidance raised: FY26 adj. EPS raised to $14.08-$14.28 (mid $14.18) from $13.96-$14.16; revenue raised to ~$67.3B from prior ~$67.0B.
- Skyrizi acceleration: Skyrizi $4.48B (+30.9% rep / +29.2% op), now annualizing $18B+; on track to exceed $20B run-rate by 2H26 - the largest non-GLP-1 drug in pharma.
- Rinvoq strength: Rinvoq $2.12B (+23.3%); UC, CD, atopic derm, and JIA label expansions continue to drive share gains versus IL-17 and IL-23 competitors.
- Humira tail: Humira $688M (-38.6%); biosimilar erosion now in the deep tail with the franchise on track to settle at ~$2.0-2.5B by 2027.
- Neuroscience inflection: Neuroscience +26.0% reported; Vraylar $905M (+18.4%) and Botox Therapeutic $1.01B (+16.5%) the standouts.
- Capital return: Board declared $1.73/quarter dividend ($6.92 annualized); 54-year continuous dividend payment record between AbbVie and predecessor Abbott Labs.
Snapshot
| Metric | Actual | Consensus / Prior | Variance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $15.00B | $14.72B (cons.) | +$280M / +1.9% |
| Adjusted diluted EPS | $2.65 | $2.62 (cons.) | +$0.03 / +1.1% |
| GAAP diluted EPS | $0.39 | $0.72 (Q1’25) | (45.8%) |
| Reported sales growth | +12.4% | +0.7% (Q1’25 YoY) | +1,170bps |
| Operational sales growth | +10.3% | n/a | Above plan |
| Adj. operating margin | 40.8% | ~42.0% (Q1’25) | (120bps) |
| Adj. gross margin | 83.6% | ~84.0% (Q1’25) | (40bps) |
| Skyrizi revenue | $4.48B | $3.42B (Q1’25) | +30.9% |
| Rinvoq revenue | $2.12B | $1.72B (Q1’25) | +23.3% |
| Humira revenue | $688M | $1,121M (Q1’25) | (38.6%) |
| Immunology revenue | $7.29B | +16.4% reported | +14.3% operational |
| Neuroscience revenue | $2.88B | +26.0% reported | +24.3% operational |
| Oncology revenue | $1.63B | (0.2%) reported | (3.0%) operational |
| Aesthetics revenue | $1.19B | +7.6% reported | +5.1% operational |
| FY26 Adj. EPS guidance | $14.08-$14.28 | $13.96-$14.16 prior | +$0.12 / +0.8% |
| FY26 Revenue guidance | ~$67.3B | ~$67.0B prior | +$300M |
| Dividend (annualized) | $6.92 | $1.73/quarter | ~3.5% yield |
| Net debt/EBITDA | ~2.3x | Target ~1.8x by YE26 | Improving |
Detail
Q1 2026 was the inflection-point print that re-rates AbbVie from a ‘managed-decline post-Humira’ equity into a ‘durable high-growth pharma’ equity. Total revenue of $15.00B (+12.4% reported, +10.3% operational) is the strongest quarterly print AbbVie has delivered since the Humira loss-of-exclusivity began in early 2023. The 210bps gap between reported and operational growth reflects FX tailwinds. Critically, this is the first quarter since Humira’s LOE in which the residual Humira drag (-$432M YoY) has been comfortably absorbed by Skyrizi/Rinvoq incremental contribution (+$1.45B combined YoY). Skyrizi delivered $4.48B (+30.9% reported, +29.2% operational), comfortably beating consensus near $4.30B and now accounts for ~30% of total AbbVie revenue. The drug is on a clear trajectory to exceed $20B in run-rate by 2H 2026, which would make it the largest non-GLP-1 prescription drug in the world. Rinvoq revenue of $2.12B grew 23.3% reported (20.2% operational), supported by atopic dermatitis, RA, PsA, and IBD indications. We continue to model Rinvoq approaching $11-12B by 2028, which combined with Skyrizi’s $24-25B trajectory implies a $35B+ immunology franchise. Humira at $688M (-38.6%) is now ~4.6% of consolidated revenue versus ~37% at peak in 2022. Neuroscience grew 26.0% reported - the fastest-growing therapeutic area - led by Botox Therapeutic at $1.01B (+16.5%) and Vraylar at $905M (+18.4%). The Cerevel acquisition added emraclidine, tavapadon (Phase 3 Parkinson’s), and darigabat. Oncology was effectively flat (-0.2%) as Imbruvica’s $556M (-24.7%) decline was offset by Venclexta at $770M (+15.7%) and Elahere at $198M (+10.7%). Aesthetics revenue of $1.19B (+7.6%) showed reacceleration with Botox Cosmetic at $668M (+20.2%). AbbVie generated ~$4.4B operating cash flow with FCF of ~$3.7B. We anchor our $255 12-month price target on a P/E of 18.0x against 2026E adj. EPS of $14.20, with a DCF cross-check at $263 (7.5% WACC, 2.5% terminal growth). With a 3.5% dividend yield, mid-teens earnings growth visibility, and Skyrizi/Rinvoq peak sales tracking toward $35B+ combined, ABBV remains one of the highest-conviction names in large-cap pharma.
Risks
- Skyrizi/Rinvoq concentration: the two products combined represent ~44% of total revenue. Any safety, label, or pricing setback would have an outsized impact on the franchise narrative and multiple.
- Oral IL-23 / next-gen IBD competition: Pfizer (etrasimod), BMS (deucravacitinib expansion), and several private-stage assets pose a 2027-2029 competitive threat to Rinvoq and Skyrizi, particularly in IBD where the convenience of an oral could matter.
- IRA pricing: Imbruvica negotiation impact is in numbers; the next round of selected drugs (announced 2026, effective 2028) could include Skyrizi or Vraylar - a meaningful overhang the market has yet to handicap.
- Pipeline execution: emraclidine’s Phase 2 schizophrenia data has been mixed; tavapadon Phase 3 readout (expected 2026-2027) is the swing factor for Cerevel acquisition value.
- Leverage: ~2.3x net debt/EBITDA is manageable but limits transformative M&A optionality; covenant headroom is healthy but rating agencies are watching.
- Aesthetics consumer cyclicality: Botox Cosmetic’s reacceleration is constructive, but a U.S. consumer downturn would flow directly through to the segment.
Catalysts (Next 90 Days)
- Q2 2026 earnings release (expected late July 2026): focus on whether Skyrizi sustains its $4.5B+ quarterly run-rate and whether Rinvoq IBD share gains continue to compound.
- Tavapadon (Cerevel) Phase 3 readouts in Parkinson’s disease (expected 2H 2026 / 1H 2027): adverse data would compress the Cerevel acquisition multiple; positive data would unlock $3-5B peak sales optionality.
- ASCO 2026 (June): updates on Elahere expansion data, Epkinly in lymphoma, and the next-generation oncology ADC pipeline.
- European Academy of Dermatology and Venereology (EADV) Congress (September): Skyrizi/Rinvoq long-term outcomes data will support payer access and label expansion narratives.
- FDA / EMA regulatory milestones: multiple line extensions and new indication filings expected over the summer, including Rinvoq in additional inflammatory and autoimmune indications.
- IRA Medicare drug pricing announcement (expected mid-2026): identifying which of AbbVie’s products may be in the next negotiation tranche.